Thursday, September 26, 2013

What does 95% certainty of warming mean? | The Japan Times

Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real, man-made threat as they are that cigarettes kill.

They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. And they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy or that dioxin in Superfund sites is dangerous.

They’ll even put a number on how certain they are about climate change. But that number isn’t 100 percent — it’s 95 percent. And for some nonscientists, that’s just not good enough.

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Comment: Here's the dirty little secret! The oft quoted study that experts use to say cigarettes kill, second hand smoke in particular, did not meet the 95% confidence rating threshold required per statistical standards which is the bare minimum necessary to say that a correlation between two variables exists. They had to downgrade the threshold to a paltry 90%. That may not seem like a lot to you but, in the world of lies, damned lies and statistics, that's really-really huge! The sad truth here is, to get the results they wanted, they cheated! 

Now they'll say that well there are many other studies out there that show a correlation. Again, another lie! What those studies did was repeat the original study and wouldn't you know it, they got similar results. What they always seem to forget to report is, not one of the studies out there was able to meet the minimal required 95% confidence rating. All they could honestly say is that the results were consistent with other studies. Put another way, there really is NO CORRELATION!

Surprisingly enough, musician Joe Jackson, a smoker, put together an interesting and well argued "position paper" which I have linked for you (HERE). This article rails against the Nanny State and the crusade against smokers and their desire to partake of a perfectly legal product in public. So admittedly, his opinion is biased. But again, here's another dirty little secret, so are the folks who do the anti-smoking studies and the anti-smoking campaigns! So knowing that, why don't we ever seem to question their motives???

Before you judge me, know this, I am not a smoker. I'll even agree with you that smoking probably isn't good for you but, you should know that there is NOT a true statistical correlation between second hand smoke and death. The truth be known, I just hate Fascism and I have a hard time relating to the hypocrisy of nanny state fascists because they're no better than schoolyard bullies!

So, how does this rant relate to global warming, which is what the linked story is all about? Well, according to the author here, 95% of scientists from a variety of different fields think that man made Global Warming is real and their as certain of that "fact" as they are certain that cigarettes and second hand smoke kills. But, how many of them know that the evidence that allegedly proves that second hand smoke kills is based on haphazardly collected evidence and slipshod scientific methodology? My bet is very few of them! If they knew that, would it change their story?? It would certainly be interesting to find out...

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